Sunday, September 17, 2006

Economic Overview

This week, The Economist published an overview of the previous weeks economic headlines. Here are the overviews:

Economic and financial indicators
America's trade deficit in goods and services reached a record $68 billion in July, rising by 5% from the month before. Exports declined by $1.3 billion in the month, to $120 billion, while imports increased by $1.9 billion, to $188 billion. However, America's biggest bilateral deficit, with China, shrank: to $19.6 billion from $19.7 billion. The recent slide in the price of crude oil could narrow the trade deficit in the coming months.

Mortgage applications in America increased by 3.2% during the first week in September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The demand for loans to buy homes had eased, but has bounced back a bit after a decline in the cost of borrowing.

In Japan core orders for machinery, which exclude those from shipbuilders and electricity companies, fell by 16.7% in July. It was the sharpest decline in almost 20 years, suggesting that investment spending may weaken. However, Japan's GDP grew by 0.2% between April and June—or by 1.0% at an annualised rate. Japanese wholesale prices increased by 3.4% in the year to August on the back of expensive oil and raw materials. The Cabinet Office's index of consumer confidence in Japan declined to 47.6 in August from 48.6 the month before.

In Britain prices rose beyond expectations last month, as annual inflation increased to 2.5%, from 2.4% in July. Inflation has now been above the Bank of England's 2% target for four months, raising the possibility that interest rates will rise this autumn. In the three months to July, average earnings were 4.4% higher than a year earlier, the fastest increase for more than a year.

France's consumer-price index rose by 1.9% in the year to August, the same as July. On the European Union's harmonised measure, inflation eased a bit, from 2.2% to 2.1%. French industrial production fell by 1.3% in July: forecasters had expected a slight increase. Carmaking declined by 1.4%, consumer-goods production dropped by 0.6% and the output of capital equipment fell by 0.4%.

Industrial production in Germany beat expectations in July, rising by 1.2% from the previous month and 4.7% from a year earlier on the back of growth in construction and spending on household appliances. The construction sector gained 3.4% in July, whereas manufacturing output increased by 1.2% and energy dropped by 0.5%.

Emerging-market indicators
China chalked up a record trade surplus of $18.8 billion in August and its industrial production was 15.7% greater than in the same month a year before.

Russia's GDP grew by 7.4% in the year to the second quarter, faster than the 5.5% it managed in the year to the first; India's industrial production expanded by 12.4% in the year to July, its quickest pace in a decade.

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